This paper extends the Bayesian Model Averaging framework to panel data models where the lagged dependent variable as well as endogenous variables appear as regressors. We propose a Limited Information Bayesian Model Averaging (LIBMA) methodology and then test it using simulated data. Simulation...

This Selected Issues Paper on Iran reviews that monetary factors are the main determinants of inflation in the country. Government spending out of oil revenues leads to large liquidity injections that the central bank accommodates owing to its efforts to prevent a significant nominal...

Economic outcomes in Jamaica have fallen short of the authorities’ objectives in recent years. As the government looks to reinvigorate its growth and debt reduction strategy, it is instructive to examine how exogenous shocks and other unanticipated developments can affect economic...

Currency option implied volatility predicts more efficiently exchange rate volatility for the Polish zloty relative to the Czech koruna, reflecting differences in the frequency of central bank intervention in the foreign exchange market. A GARCH model shows a positive impact of the introduction...

External demand was the main driver of growth in Thailand in 2006 and 2007. However, WEO projections indicate moderating foreign demand in 2008, with U.S. growth being revised downwards to reflect the turmoil in housing and credit markets, and high oil prices. While the share of Thai exports to...

We revisit the dramatic failure of monetary models in explaining exchange rate movements. Using the information content from 98 countries, we find strong evidence for cointegration between nominal exchange rates and monetary fundamentals. We also find fundamentalsbased models very successful in...

This paper studies asymptotically the bias of the fixed effect (FE) estimator induced by cross-section heterogeneity in the slope parameters of stationary vector autoregressions (VARs). The paper also compares the FE, the mean group estimator (MG), and a simple instrumental variable alternative...

We propose using a Bayesian time-varying coefficient model estimated with Markov chain-Monte Carlo methods to measure contagion empirically. The proposed measure works in the joint presence of heteroskedasticity and omitted variables and does not require knowledge of the timing of the crisis. It...