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The empirical literature is very far from any consensus about the appropriate model for oil price forecasting that should be implemented. Relative to the previous literature, this paper is novel in several respects. First of all, we test and systematically evaluate the ability of several...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009421234
The relevance of oil in the world economy explains why considerable effort has been devoted to the development of different types of econometric models for oil price forecasting. Several specifications have been proposed in the economic literature. Some are based on financial theory and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005423181
evaluates the role of Solar Radiation Management (SRM) on the optimal abatement path, focusing on the uncertainty about the … theory under uncertainty, we show that abatement is decreasing in the probability of success of SRM, but that this relation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010904907
% lower. On average, a doubling of public RD&D is expected to result in an 8% cost reduction, but uncertainty is large. The …&D investments do not affect uncertainty ranges, but US experts’ are less confident about costs than Europeans. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010904930
Given disparate beliefs about economic growth, technical change and damage caused by climate change, this paper starts with the seeming impossibility of determining a unique time profile of the social costs of carbon as a benchmark for climate negotiations and for infrastructure decisions that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010904931
unilateral standard accident model under Knightian uncertainty. It focuses on the cost expectation of major harm on which the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010904939
Uncertainty is prevalent in the context of climate change impacts. Moreover, the distribution across the globe is not … Models (IAMs), which assumes no risk sharing across region, we introduce global risk sharing via a market for state … across regions. We estimate that such risk sharing scheme of climate risks could lead to welfare gains reducing the global …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010941054
total social costs. Three types of uncertainties are taken into account: uncertainty about abatement costs, business …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010941064
Likelihood that links uncertainty about benefits and costs of climate change to the stability analysis of coalitions in a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005385476
This paper studies the empirical relationship between consumption and saving under two different sources of uncertainty …: financial risk and environmental risk. The analysis is carried out using time series data for six advanced economies in the … period 1965-2007. The results support the theoretical conclusions that both financial risk alone and the interaction between …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009320989