We exploit policy discontinuities in Poland's unemployment insurance to examine the causal effect of changes to both benefit durations and levels. Using a regression discontinuity approach, we uncover three findings: (1) Higher benefit levels distort employment more than benefit extensions. (2)...

Concern exists that public funding of science is increasingly risk averse. Funders have addressed this concern by soliciting the submission of high-risk research to either regular or specially designed programs. Little evidence, however, has been gathered to examine the extent to which such...

How do communication costs affect the production of new ideas and inventions? To answer this question, we study the introduction of the Uniform Penny Post in Great Britain in 1840. This reform replaced the previous system of expensive distance-based postage fees with a uniform low rate of one...

Markets, likened to an invisible hand, often appear to contradict econometric assumptions that rule out spillovers of one person's treatment on another's outcomes. This paper provides a simple statistical framework highlighting that controls are indirectly affected by the treatment through the...

This paper explores methods for inferring the causal effects of treatments on choices by combining data on real choices with hypothetical evaluations. We propose a class of estimators, identify conditions under which they yield consistent estimates, and derive their asymptotic distributions. The...

Education and income are strong predictors of health and longevity. In the last 20 years many efforts have been made to understand if these relationships are causal and what the possible role of policy should be as a result. The evidence from various studies is ambiguous: the effects of...

Marginal outcome tests compare the expected effects of a decision on individuals who are of different races but at the same indifference point of the decision-maker. I present a simple formalization of how such tests can detect racial bias, defined as a deviation from accurate statistical...

We develop an optimal policy assignment rule that integrates two distinctive approaches commonly used in economics--targeting by observables and targeting through self-selection. Our method can be used with experimental or quasi-experimental data to identify who should be treated, be untreated,...

We study the interpretation of regressions with multiple treatments and flexible controls. Such regressions are often used to analyze stratified randomized control trials with multiple intervention arms, to estimate value-added (for, e.g., teachers) with observational data, and to leverage the...