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Budgetary and External Imbalances Relationship : a Panel Data Diagnostic
Afonso, António; Rault, Christophe - ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department … - 2008
We assess the cointegration relationship between current account and budget balances, and effective real exchange rates, using recent bootstrap panel cointegration techniques and SUR methods. We investigate the magnitude of the relationship between the two imbalances for each country for the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005761272
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Bootstrap Panel Granger-Causality Between Government Budget and External Deficits for the EU
Afonso, António; Rault, Christophe - ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department … - 2009
We investigate the existence of Granger-causality between current account and government budget balances over the period 1970-2007, for different EU and OECD country groupings. We use a panel-data approach based on SUR systems and Wald tests with country specific bootstrap critical values. Our...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005184983
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What We Really Know about Fiscal Sustainability in the EU? A Panel Data Diagnostic.
Afonso, António; Rault, Christophe - ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department … - 2007
We assess the sustainability of public finances in the EU15 over the period 1970-2006 using stationarity and cointegration analysis. Specifically, we use panel unit root tests of the first and second generation allowing in some cases for structural breaks. We also apply modern panel...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005593005
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Should we Care for Structural Breaks When Assessing Fiscal Sustainability?
Afonso, António; Rault, Christophe - ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department … - 2008
We apply recent panel cointegration methods to a structural equation between government expenditure and revenue. Allowing for multiple endogenous breaks and after computing appropriate bootstrap critical values, we conclude for fiscal sustainability in the overall EU15 panel.
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005593048
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Short and Long-run Behaviour of Long-term Sovereign Bond Yields
Afonso, António; Rault, Christophe - ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department … - 2010
determinants, we resort to simulation and bootstrap methods for the analysis. Results based on the Common Correlated Effect …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008752828
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3-Step Analysis of Public Finances Sustainability: the Case of the European Union
Afonso, António; Rault, Christophe - ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department … - 2008
We use a 3-step analysis to assess the sustainability of public finances in the EU27. Firstly, we perform the SURADF specific panel unit root test to investigate the meanreverting behaviour of general government expenditure and revenue ratios. Secondly, we apply the bootstrap panel cointegration...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005628443
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Long-run Determinants of Sovereign Yields
Afonso, António; Rault, Christophe - ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department … - 2010
We study sovereign bond yields in OECD countries with a dynamic panel by checking for cross-section dependence; assessing panel cointegration; and estimating panel errorcorrection models. The results show that markets consider budgetary and external imbalances and inflation as relevant...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008642491
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How does party fractionalization convey preferences for redistribution in parliamentary democracies?
Amable, Bruno; Gatti, Donatella; Guillaud, Elvire - HAL - 2008
In this paper, we highlight the link between the political demand and social policy outcome while taking into account the design of the party system. The political demand is measured by individual preferences and the design of the party system is defined as the extent of party fractionalization....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010930221
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The political economy of job protection and income redistribution
Amable, Bruno; Gatti, Donatella - HAL - 2005
alternative institutional options: the degree of labour market flexibility and the intensity of redistribution. We show that the … internationalization reduces the possibility for national government to e.ectively tax profits, the existing political coalition is … (positive flexibility versus positive redistribution). …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010930237
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How does party fractionalization convey preferences for redistribution in parliamentary democracies?
Amable, Bruno; Gatti, Donatella; Guillaud, Elvire - HAL - 2008
In this paper, we highlight the link between the political demand and social policy outcome while taking into account the design of the party system. The political demand is measured by individual preferences and the design of the party system is defined as the extent of party fractionalization....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011025531