Eurozone is going though the worst ever crises since the adoption of the common currency in 1999. In the aftermath of financial crises of 2007, many EU government due to their own fragile banking system and imbalance economic structures persued a debt-spending financing which resulted into a...

We propose a measure of the probability of crises associated with an aggregate indicator, where the percentage of false alarms and the proportion of missed signals can be combined to give an appreciation of the vulnerability of an economy. In this perspective, the important issue is not only to...

We propose a measure of the probability of crises associated with an aggregate indicator, where the percentage of false alarms and the proportion of missed signals can be combined to give an appreciation of the vulnerability of an economy. In this perspective, the important issue is not only to...

This paper proposes an original and uni ed toolbox to evaluate nancial crisis Early Warning Systems (EWS). It presents four main advantages. First, it is a model free method which can be used to asses the forecasts issued from di erent EWS (probit, logit, markov switching models, or combinations...

We analyze the conditions of emergence of a twin banking and sovereign debt crisis within a monetary union in which: (i) the central bank is not allowed to provide direct financial support to stressed member states or to play the role of lender of last resort in sovereign bond markets, and (ii)...

Drawing together the concepts of inefficiency and banking crisis is directly inspired by business cycles theory where a crisis is the turning point from which the market/economy is recovering. If inefficiency plays a role in the occurrence of banking crisis, the post-crisis period should be the...

Prior to the 2008 financial crisis, the economic model of PPPs benefited from a very favorable environment in terms of credit availability and cost. The high level of liquidity in financial markets allowed rising abundant and not expensive external resources, because of both the low level of...

This paper investigates Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall for CAC 40, S&P 500, Wheat and Crude Oil indexes during the 2008 financial crisis. We show an underestimation of the risk of loss for the unconditional VaR models as compared with the conditional models. This underestimation is...

Modified Cox-Ingersoll-Ross model is employed, combining with Hamilton (1989) type Markov regime switching framework, to study foreign exchange rates, where all parameter values depend on the value of a continuous time Markov chain. Basing on real data of some foreign exchange rates, the...

The disaster myopia hypothesis is a theoretical argument that may explain why crises are a recurrent event. Under very optimistic circumstances, investors disregard any relevant information concerning the increasing degree of risk. Agents' propensity to underestimate the probability of adverse...