Recently, Asian and Latin American countries have been involved in a series of negotiations to liberalize trade and investment flows. This paper analyzes the potential impact of a Free Trade Agreement between countries of both regions, applying a world dynamic general equilibrium model (MIRAGE)....

Eurozone is going though the worst ever crises since the adoption of the common currency in 1999. In the aftermath of financial crises of 2007, many EU government due to their own fragile banking system and imbalance economic structures persued a debt-spending financing which resulted into a...

We propose a measure of the probability of crises associated with an aggregate indicator, where the percentage of false alarms and the proportion of missed signals can be combined to give an appreciation of the vulnerability of an economy. In this perspective, the important issue is not only to...

We propose a measure of the probability of crises associated with an aggregate indicator, where the percentage of false alarms and the proportion of missed signals can be combined to give an appreciation of the vulnerability of an economy. In this perspective, the important issue is not only to...

This paper proposes an original and uni ed toolbox to evaluate nancial crisis Early Warning Systems (EWS). It presents four main advantages. First, it is a model free method which can be used to asses the forecasts issued from di erent EWS (probit, logit, markov switching models, or combinations...

Urbanization and poverty have a two-way relationship. Using fixed-effects regression andpanel data from household surveys, we estimate the effect of urbanization on welfare andpoverty of rural households in Vietnam. We find that urbanization tends to increaselandlessness of rural households and...

This paper analyzes return migrants' occupational choice upon their return to their home village, by using an original rural household survey conducted in Wuwei county (Anhui province, China) in 2008. We apply two complementary approaches : a horizontal comparative analysis of occupational...

This paper provides a new approach to analyzing credit constraints by differentiating which of the household's production and consumption decisions are affected by credit constraints. It also provides a first attempt to estimate of the extent and determinants of credit constraints in the...

This paper aims at explaining differences in education between foster-children and the biological children of their new household by differences in return to education as suggested by the human capital investment model. Defining this return by the amount of the old-age support the care-givers...

Uncertainty is a crucial issue for producers who must make input decisions without knowing prices and without perfect knowledge of realized output. In this context, price expectations strongly determine the production choices and market prices that result from market-clearing conditions. This...