Showing 1 - 10 of 71
We study how asymmetric information affects market volatility in a linear setup where the outcome is determined by …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010635137
New fast estimation methods stemming from control theory lead to a fresh look at time series, which bears some … of the volatility with respect to the forecasted trendline, are provided. $\mathcal{Z}$-transform and differential …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008791958
This note shows that there are close connections between the determinacy of a stationary state equilibrium and its stability under learning whenever agents try to estimate both the law of motion of the state variable and the stationary state value.
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010898552
The purpose of this paper is to assess the relevance of rational expectations solutions to the class of linear univariate models where both the number of leads in expectations and the number of lags in predetermined variables are arbitrary. It recommends to rule out all the solutions that would...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010898623
This paper studies relationships between the local determinacy of a stationary equilibrium in the perfect foresight dynamics, and its local stability in dynamics arising from econometric learning procedures. Attention is focused on linear scalar economies where agents forecast only one period...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010899082
A general framework is suggested to describe human decision making in a certain class of experiments performed in a trading laboratory. We are in particular interested in discerning between two different moods, or states of the investors, corresponding to investors using fundemental investment...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010635200
We consider a pure exchange financial economy, where rational agents, possibly asymmetrically informed, forecast prices privately and, therefore, face "exogenous uncertainty", on the future state of nature, and "endogenous uncertainty" on future prices. At a sequential equilibrium, all agents...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011025840
We study how asymmetric information affects the set of rationalizable solutions in a linear setup where the outcome is determined by forecasts about this same outcome. The unique rational expectations equilibrium is also the unique rationalizable solution when the sensitivity of the outcome to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011025881
individual level inflation expectations is proposed using a Markov chain Monte Carlo Hierarchical Bayesian estimation method …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011025927
We consider an economic model that features: 1. a continuum of agents 2. an aggregate state of the world over which agents have an infinitesimal influence. We first propose a review, based on work by Jara (2007), of the connections between the eductive viewpoint that puts emphasis on Strongly...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010738797