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unequivocally clear picture of the trade impacts of changes in exchange rates. The impact of exchange rate volatility on trade also … their volatility on trade flows in China, the Euro area and the United States in two broadly defined sectors, agriculture on … the one hand and manufacturing and mining on the other. It finds that exchange volatility impacts trade flows only …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010899210
New fast estimation methods stemming from control theory lead to a fresh look at time series, which bears some … of the volatility with respect to the forecasted trendline, are provided. $\mathcal{Z}$-transform and differential …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008791958
In the light of the economically rational expectation theory, this article shows how an expert chooses an optimal oil price forecast function given that information is costly. In this framework we propose an expectational process which nests all processes considered in the literature. By...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008789498
This paper relaxes a fundamental hypothesis commonly accepted in the expectation formation literature: expectations are, unchangingly, either rational or generated by one of the three simple extrapolative, regressive or adaptive processes. Using expectations survey data provided by Consensus...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008789553
This article examines the volatility dependence between the crude oil price and four US dollar exchange rates using … both fractional cointegration and copula techniques. The former exploits the long memory behavior of the volatility … to explore whether the volatility of the markets are linked in the short run. The cointegration results conclude in favor …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010933834
In this paper we investigate the impact of financial globalization on the behaviour of inflation targeting emerging market economies with respect to exchange rate - do central banks respond to exchange rate movements or not. We use quarterly data for six emerging market inflation targeting...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009372685
Recent literature suggests that a proactive exchange rate policy in accordance with price incentives (i.e. undervaluation) can foster manufactured exports and growth. This paper is built on these recent developments and investigates, using a sample of 52 developing countries, whether such a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009278330
In this article, we examine the intradaily Euro-dollar exchange rate volatility persistence result from the …. It is found that, unlike the equity market, the best volatility predictions are derived from the EGARCH(1,1) process. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010750845
In this paper we study, using the sup LR test, the possibility of discrimination between two classes of models: the Markov switching models of Hamilton (1989) and the Threshold Auto-Regressive Models (TAR) of Lim and Tong (1980). This work is motivated by the fact that generally practicians use,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010738508
Foreign exchange rate plays an important role in international finance. This paper examines unit roots and the long range dependence of 23 foreign exchange rates using Robinson's (1994) test, which is one of the most efficient tests when testing fractional orders of seasonal/cyclical long memory...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010603665