This paper analyses the monetary consequences of the Latin-American trade integration process. We consider a sample of five countries -Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Mexico and Uruguay- spanning the period 1991-2007. The main question raised pertains to the feasibility of a monetary union between...

This paper studies to what extent the diversity of exchange rate regimes within Mercosur exerts an influence on the feasibility of a monetary union in this area. A semi-structural VAR model is built for each country, including a set of international and domestic variables. Based on impulse...

This paper analyses the monetary consequences of the Latin-American trade integration process. We consider a sample of five countries –Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Mexico and Uruguay- spanning the period 1991-2007. The main question raised pertains to the feasibility of a monetary union between...

The future membership of CEECs in the eurozone involves the risk of external asymmetric shocks, due to too strong a dependence on one sector or one customer country. By defining two indicators - sector-based and geographic - of exposure to shocks, taking into account the symmetry of the export...

Eurozone is going though the worst ever crises since the adoption of the common currency in 1999. In the aftermath of financial crises of 2007, many EU government due to their own fragile banking system and imbalance economic structures persued a debt-spending financing which resulted into a...

We propose a measure of the probability of crises associated with an aggregate indicator, where the percentage of false alarms and the proportion of missed signals can be combined to give an appreciation of the vulnerability of an economy. In this perspective, the important issue is not only to...

We propose a measure of the probability of crises associated with an aggregate indicator, where the percentage of false alarms and the proportion of missed signals can be combined to give an appreciation of the vulnerability of an economy. In this perspective, the important issue is not only to...

This paper proposes an original and uni ed toolbox to evaluate nancial crisis Early Warning Systems (EWS). It presents four main advantages. First, it is a model free method which can be used to asses the forecasts issued from di erent EWS (probit, logit, markov switching models, or combinations...

Urbanization and poverty have a two-way relationship. Using fixed-effects regression andpanel data from household surveys, we estimate the effect of urbanization on welfare andpoverty of rural households in Vietnam. We find that urbanization tends to increaselandlessness of rural households and...

This paper analyzes return migrants' occupational choice upon their return to their home village, by using an original rural household survey conducted in Wuwei county (Anhui province, China) in 2008. We apply two complementary approaches : a horizontal comparative analysis of occupational...