New fast estimation methods stemming from control theory lead to a fresh look at time series, which bears some resemblance to "technical analysis". The results are applied to a typical object of financial engineering, namely the forecast of foreign exchange rates, via a "model-free" setting,...

We are settling a longstanding quarrel in quantitative finance by proving the existence of trends in financial time series thanks to a theorem due to P. Cartier and Y. Perrin, which is expressed in the language of nonstandard analysis (Integration over finite sets, F. & M. Diener (Eds):...

Model uncertainty, in the context of derivative pricing, can be defined as the uncertainty on the value of a contingent claim resulting from the lack of precise knowledge of the pricing model to be used for its valuation. We introduce here a quantitative framework for defining model uncertainty...

Regulation and Risk management in banks depend on underlying risk measures. In general this is the only purpose that is seen for risk measures. In this paper, we suggest that the reporting of risk measures can be used to determine the loss distribution function for a financial entity. We...

Starting from the requirement that risk measures of financial portfolios should be based on their losses, not their gains, we define the notion of loss-based risk measure and study the properties of this class of risk measures. We characterize loss-based risk measures by a representation theorem...

The banking systems that deal with risk management depend on underlying risk measures. Following the recommendation of the Basel II accord, most banks have developed internal models to determine their capital requirement. The Value at Risk measure plays an important role in computing this...

The banking systems that deal with risk management depend on underlying risk measures. Following the recommendation of the Basel II accord, most banks have developed internal models to determine their capital requirement. The Value at Risk measure plays an important role in computing this...

Expected Shortfall (ES) has been widely accepted as a risk measure that is conceptually superior to Value-at-Risk (VaR). At the same time, however, it has been criticized for issues relating to backtesting. In particular, ES has been found not to be elicitable which means that backtesting for ES...

In the renewal risk model, we study the asymptotic behavior of the expected time-integrated negative part of the process. This risk measure has been introduced by Loisel (2005). Both heavy-tailed and light-tailed claim amount distributions are investigated. The time horizon may be finite or...

Dans le cadre des procédures de backtesting de la Value-at-Risk (VaR), nous proposons une étude de la qualité de la correction de l'effet d'estimation du test de Kupiec (Journal of Derivatives, 1995) fondée sur les travaux de Escansiano et Olmo (2008). Cette étude conduit à apporter une...