expectations in the sense that any other expectations justifying his choices imply a smaller likelihood for the history he observes … with limited memory, then there are rationally formed expectations equilibria exhibiting an excess volatility that no … rational expectations equilibrium can match. Given that the limited records or finite memory case may arguably be the relevant …

preserve their access to 'soft' qualitative information entice them to issue pessimistic or optimistic forecasts. We use a … gravity model approach to firmsanalysts relationships and propose a measure of soft information. Our database contains the one … access to soft information released by managers. …

We extend the Cornet-de Boisdeffre (2002-2009) asymmetric information finite dimensional model to a more general …-1979) classical, but restrictive, assumptions of rational expectations and perfect foresight. It deals with sequential financial …

time span (January 1978 - June 2013). Subsequently the information theoretic concept of transfer entropy is used to reveal …

rules and institutions they face. This allows to proxy the bailout expectations in both countries and their role in … determining soft budget spending behaviors. A larger impact of expectations is taken as evidence of greater discretion in fiscal … soft budget constraints and bailing out expectations are a quantitatively important component of local government spending …

This paper is dedicated to the empirical exploration of the welfare effect of expectations and progress per se. Using …

form adaptive expectations, based on an evolving individual mental model, their behaviour becomes much more interesting in … indicate that assumptions on bounded rationality, and on adaptive expectations are perfectly compatible with sound and …

democracies, governments need to convince their populations through efficient and persuasive information campaigns. In the context …, with 175 participants, to explore what type of information can induce change in vaccination intentions at both aggregate …, and that it is information of a purely scientific nature that has the only significant positive effect on intention to …