form adaptive expectations, based on an evolving individual mental model, their behaviour becomes much more interesting in … indicate that assumptions on bounded rationality, and on adaptive expectations are perfectly compatible with sound and …

rules and institutions they face. This allows to proxy the bailout expectations in both countries and their role in … determining soft budget spending behaviors. A larger impact of expectations is taken as evidence of greater discretion in fiscal … soft budget constraints and bailing out expectations are a quantitatively important component of local government spending …

This paper is dedicated to the empirical exploration of the welfare effect of expectations and progress per se. Using …

expectations in the sense that any other expectations justifying his choices imply a smaller likelihood for the history he observes … with limited memory, then there are rationally formed expectations equilibria exhibiting an excess volatility that no … rational expectations equilibrium can match. Given that the limited records or finite memory case may arguably be the relevant …

-1979) classical, but restrictive, assumptions of rational expectations and perfect foresight. It deals with sequential financial …

'expérience quasiment inexistant. Il était donc nécessaire de développer un modèle de simulation des dommages directs et induits en prenant … montrons comment nous avons intégré dans le modèle de simulation des dommages, les données recueillies par enquêtes. Les … premiers résultats de simulation des dommages confirment l'importance de prendre en compte les effets induits de l …