We present a model of inductive inference that includes, as special cases, Bayesian reasoning, case-based reasoning, and rulebased reasoning. This uni ed framework allows us to examine how the various modes of inductive inference can be combined and how their relative weights change...

We show that when decision makers are of the multiple prior kind, there is an equivalence between no betting and non empty intersection of the sets of priors.

We show that when decision makers are of the multiple prior kind, there is an equivalence between no betting and non empty intersection of the sets of priors.

We suggest a model that describes how counterfactuals are constructed and justified. The model can describe how counterfactual beliefs are updated given the unfolding of actual history. It also allows us to examine the use of counterfactuals in prediction, and to show that a logically omniscient...

This paper examines circumstances under which subjectivity enhances the effectiveness of inductive reasoning. We consider a game in which Fate chooses a data generating process and agents are characterized by inference rules that may be purely objective (or data-based) or may incorporate...

We consider the dynamics of reasoning by general rules (theories) and specific cases (analogies). When an agent faces an exogenous process, we show that, under mild conditions, if reality happens to be simple, the agent will converge to adopt a theory and discard analogical thinking. If,...