Eurozone is going though the worst ever crises since the adoption of the common currency in 1999. In the aftermath of financial crises of 2007, many EU government due to their own fragile banking system and imbalance economic structures persued a debt-spending financing which resulted into a...

We build an overlapping generation model to study financial fragility in a two-sector small open economy. Firms are subject to a borrowing constraint and there is a currency mismatch in the balance sheets of the non-tradable sector. As a consequence, at a given point in time, multiple equilibria...

We propose a measure of the probability of crises associated with an aggregate indicator, where the percentage of false alarms and the proportion of missed signals can be combined to give an appreciation of the vulnerability of an economy. In this perspective, the important issue is not only to...

We propose a measure of the probability of crises associated with an aggregate indicator, where the percentage of false alarms and the proportion of missed signals can be combined to give an appreciation of the vulnerability of an economy. In this perspective, the important issue is not only to...

This paper proposes an original and uni ed toolbox to evaluate nancial crisis Early Warning Systems (EWS). It presents four main advantages. First, it is a model free method which can be used to asses the forecasts issued from di erent EWS (probit, logit, markov switching models, or combinations...

In the aftermath of the sovereign debt criss, open-market interventions prevailed within the central bank's policy answers known under the label unconventional monetary policy measures. During interwar period, France was an isolated case, among the leading countries, by everlastingly rejecting...

We are interested in the occurrence of expectation-driven fluctuations of a rational bubble and the (de-)stabilizing role of monetary policy. Our explanation of fluctuations is based on credit market imperfections. For this purpose, we consider an overlapping generations exchange economy where...

We explore the existence of endogenous fluctuations with a rational bubble and the stabilizing role of fiscal and monetary policies. Consumers' credit constraints, the role of collateral and a portfolio choice are the key ingredients of our analysis. We consider an overlapping generations model...

The fiscal theory of the price level says that the price level can be made determinate if the government uses fiscal policies such that government liabilities explode unless the price in the first period is at the "right" level. The policy implications are disturbing, as they call for rather...

In this paper, we compare, first, the impact of a windfall and a boom sectors on the economy of an oil exporting country and their welfare implications ; in a second step, we analyze how monetary policy should be conducted to insulate the economy from the main impact of these shocks, namely the...