Le modèle de marche au hasard en finance peut être considéré comme issu de la convergence de trois préoccupations distinctes : une préoccupation morale avec Jules Regnault (1834-1894), une préoccupation scientifique avec Louis Bachelier (1870-1946), et une préoccupation financière avec...

This note shows that there are close connections between the determinacy of a stationary state equilibrium and its stability under learning whenever agents try to estimate both the law of motion of the state variable and the stationary state value.

The purpose of this paper is to assess the relevance of rational expectations solutions to the class of linear univariate models where both the number of leads in expectations and the number of lags in predetermined variables are arbitrary. It recommends to rule out all the solutions that would...

This paper studies relationships between the local determinacy of a stationary equilibrium in the perfect foresight dynamics, and its local stability in dynamics arising from econometric learning procedures. Attention is focused on linear scalar economies where agents forecast only one period...

We study how asymmetric information affects market volatility in a linear setup where the outcome is determined by forecasts about this same outcome. The unique rational expectations equilibrium will be stable when it is the only rationalizable solution. It has been established in the literature...

A general framework is suggested to describe human decision making in a certain class of experiments performed in a trading laboratory. We are in particular interested in discerning between two different moods, or states of the investors, corresponding to investors using fundemental investment...

We consider a pure exchange financial economy, where rational agents, possibly asymmetrically informed, forecast prices privately and, therefore, face "exogenous uncertainty", on the future state of nature, and "endogenous uncertainty" on future prices. At a sequential equilibrium, all agents...

We study how asymmetric information affects the set of rationalizable solutions in a linear setup where the outcome is determined by forecasts about this same outcome. The unique rational expectations equilibrium is also the unique rationalizable solution when the sensitivity of the outcome to...

This article investigates whether the formation of individual inflation expectations is biased towards a consensus and is thus subject to some kind of herding behavior. Basing on the traditional Carlson-Parkin approach to quantify qualitative survey expectations and its extension by Kaiser and...

We consider an economic model that features: 1. a continuum of agents 2. an aggregate state of the world over which agents have an infinitesimal influence. We first propose a review, based on work by Jara (2007), of the connections between the eductive viewpoint that puts emphasis on Strongly...