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Earnings forecast bias - a statistical analysis
Michalon, Karine; Lardic, Sandrine; Dossou, François - HAL - 2005
well-known phenomenon, namely the existence of a positive bias in experts' anticipations: the latter tend to over …-estimate earnings. In this paper, we study the properties of this bias according to various aspects, that is to say according to country …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008788892
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Biased
 Information 
and
 Effort
Rosaz, Julie - HAL - 2012
information at the principal's advantage, we test experimentally the principal's willingness to bias (overestimate or under …) principals do bias information, ii) agents trust the cheap-talk messages they receive and adjust their effort accordingly …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008790485
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Can earnings forecasts be improved by taking into account the forecast bias?
Dossou, François; Lardic, Sandrine; Michalon, Karine - HAL - 2008
The recent period has highlighted a well-known phenomenon, namely the existence of a positive bias in experts … contributions are twofold: we provide explanatory bias prediction models which will subsequently allow the calculation of earnings … adjusted forecasts, for horizons from 1 to 24 months. We explain the bias using macroeconomic as well as sector and firm …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008792953
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Entropy and the value of information for investors
Cabrales, Antonio; Gossner, Olivier; Serrano, Roberto - HAL - 2011
Consider any investor who fears ruin when facing any set of investments that satisfy no-arbitrage. Before investing, he can purchase information about the state of nature in the form of an information structure. Given his prior, information structure $\alpha$ is more informative than information...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010930175
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Towards a theory of deception
Jehiel, Philippe; Ettinger, David - HAL - 2005
simple bargaining games. The approach can be viewed as formalizing into a game theoretic setting a well documented bias in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010738710
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Strategic analysis of petty corruption with an intermediary
Lambert-Mogiliansky, Ariane; Majumdar, Mukul; Roy, Radner - HAL - 2007
This notes reports part of a larger study of "petty corruption" by government bureaucrats in the process of approving new business projects. Each bureaucrat may demand a bribe as a condition for approval. Entrepreneurs use the services of an intermediary who, for a fee, undertakes to obtain all...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010738738
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Dumbing down rational players : learning and teaching in an experimental game
Terracol, Antoine; Vaksmann, Jonathan - HAL - 2007
This paper uses experimental data to examine the existence of a teaching strategy among bounded rational players. If players realize that their own actions modify their opponent's beliefs and actions, they might play certain actions to this specific end ; and forego immediate payoffs if the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010750958
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Financial Symmetry and Moods in the Market
Savona, Roberto; Soumare, Maxence; Andersen, Jørgen Vitting - HAL - 2014
This paper introduces a theoretical framework for collective decision making to describe fluctuations and transitions in financial markets. Investors are assumed to be boundedly rational, using a limited set of information including past price history and expectation on future dividends....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011025695
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On the restricted cores and the bounded core of games on distributive lattices
Grabisch, Michel; Sudhölter, Peter - HAL - 2014
A game with precedence constraints is a TU game with restricted cooperation, where the set of feasible coalitions is a distributive lattice, hence generated by a partial order on the set of players. Its core may be unbounded, and the bounded core, which is the union of all bounded faces of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011025926
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A probabilistic position value
Ghintran, Amandine; Gonzalez-Aranguena, Enrique; … - HAL - 2011
In this article, we generalize the position value, defined by Meessen (1988) for the class of deterministic communication situations, to the class of generalized probabilistic com- munication situations (G ́ Gomez et al. (2008)). We provide two characterizations of this new allocation rule....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011026229