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Trend shocks and business cycles in Sub Saharan Africa
Naoussi, Claude Francis; Tripier, Fabien - HAL - 2010
, especially the excess volatility of consumption in SSA countries. Our results suggest a strong relationship between the weight of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008793580
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A Revision of the US Business- Cycles Chronology 1790–1928
Charles, Amélie; Darné, Olivier; Diebolt, Claude - HAL - 2011
This article extends earlier efforts at redating the US business cycles for the 1790–1928 period using the real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) constructed by Johnson and Williamson (2007). We compare the alternative chronology with those of the NBER and Davis (2006) as well as Romer (1994) for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008855839
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Evaluation of Nonlinear time-series models for real-time business cycle analysis of the Euro area
Billio, Monica; Ferrara, Laurent; Guegan, Dominique; … - HAL - 2009
In this paper, we aim at assessing Markov-switching and threshold models in their ability to identify turning points of economic cycles. By using vintage data that are updated on a monthly basis, we compare their ability to detect ex-post the occurrence of turning points of the classical...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010738487
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Economic analysis of the European cement industry
Boyer, Marcel; Ponssard, Jean-Pierre - HAL - 2013
We present a methodology to assess the profitability of a capital intensive industry over a business cycle and to make projections of profitability for different investment strategies under various hypothetical scenarios for environmental and competition policies. The methodology is applied to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010821134
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Welfare Cost of Fluctuations: when Labor Market Search Interacts with Financial Frictions
Iliopulos, Eleni; Langot, François; Sopraseuth, Thepthida - HAL - 2014
We provide a quantitative assessment of welfare costs of fluctuations in a search model with financial frictions. The matching process in the labor market leads positive shocks to reduce unemployment less than negative shocks increase it. We show that the magnitude of this non-linearity is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011025686
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Information and repeat-sales
Simon, Arnaud - HAL - 2007
volatility of the index and the reversibility phenomenon. We study the formal link between the repeat-sales index and the price …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008793522
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FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT AND INSTABILITY:THE ROLE OF THE LABOUR SHARE
Orgiazzi, Elsa - HAL - 2007
This paper examines the role of the labour share in creating instability in a small open economy. We assume that financial markets are imperfect so that entrepreneurs are credit constrained, and that this constraint is tighter for low levels of financial development. Aghion, Bacchetta and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008793997
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Options Introduction and Volatility in the EU ETS
Chevallier, Julien; Pen, Yannick Le; Sévi, Benoît - HAL - 2009
market depth) or increase (due to more speculation) volatility. As the identification of these effects ultimately remains an … empirical question, we use daily data from April 2005 to April 2008 to document volatility behavior in the EU ETS. By … introduction of the option market had no effect on the volatility in the EU ETS. These finding are robust to other likely …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008794422
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Absorptive Capacity: More Than the Volume of Aid, its Modalities Matter
Guillaumont, Patrick; Jeanneney, Sylviane Guillaumont - HAL - 2011
credits; 2) macroeconomic troubles, including loss of competitiveness and macroeconomic volatility; 3) decrease of aid returns …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008805119
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Is a probabilistic modeling really useful in financial engineering? --- A-t-on vraiment besoin d'un modèle probabiliste en ingénierie financière ?
Fliess, Michel; Join, Cédric; Hatt, Frédéric - HAL - 2011
not only a rigorous approach of trends and volatility, but also efficient calculations which were already successfully …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008924910