In this paper, we consider a discrete time economy where we assume that the short term interest rate follows a quadratic term structure of a regime switching asset process. The possible non-linear structure and the fact that the interest rate can have different economic or financial trends...

This paper presents a new multivariate GARCH model with time-varying conditional correlation structure, which is a special case of the Regime Switching Dynamic Correlation (RSDC) of Pelletier (2006). This model which we have named Hierarchical RSDC (HRSDC), has been built with the hierarchical...

This paper presents a new multivariate GARCH model with time-varying conditional correlation structure which is a generalization of the Regime Switching Dynamic Correlation (RSDC) of Pelletier (2006). This model, which we name Hierarchical RSDC, is building with the hierarchical generalization...

We develop a dynamic game to provide with a theory of Arab spring-type events. We consider two interacting groups, the elite vs the citizens, two political regimes, dictatorship vs a freer regime, the possibility to switch from the first to the second regime as a consequence of a revolution, and...

A large number of non linear conditional heteroskedastic models have been proposed in the literature and practitioners do not have always the tools to choose the correct specification. In this article, our main interest is to know if usual choice criteria lead them to choose the good...

Many structural break and regime-switching models have been used with macroeconomic and financial data. In this paper, we develop an extremely flexible modeling approach which can accommodate virtually any of these specifications. We build on earlier work showing the relationship between...

Many structural break and regime-switching models have been used with macroeconomic and financial data. In this paper, we develop an extremely flexible modeling approach which can accommodate virtually any of these specifications. We build on earlier work showing the relationship between...

This study examines the volatility and correlation and their relationships among the euro/US dollar exchange rates, the S&P500 equity indices, and the prices of WTI crude oil and the precious metals (gold, silver, and platinum) over the period 2005 to 2012. Our model links the univariate...

Using the Panel Study of Income Dynamics data on the period 1982-1992, this paper investigates some mechanisms of the labor market in the United States. This market is analyzed as a stable structure constituted of segments which present contrasted characteristics under the usual distinction...

Time series of coalitions (so-called scenarios) are studied that describe processes of coalition formation where several players may enter or leave the current coalition at any point in (discrete) time and convergence to the grand coalition is not necessarily prescribed. Transitions from one...