Using financial experts' Yen/USD exchange rate expectations provided by Consensus Forecasts surveys, this paper aims to model the 3 and 12-month ahead ex-ante risk premia, measured as the difference between the expected and forward exchange rates. The condition of predictability of returns...

An article about Kihlstrom and Mirman about comparative risk aversion with many goods is critiqued. If "more risk averse" is interpreted as signifying that an individual is less willing to accept a median-preserving spread, then risk aversion cannot be compared across individuals with different...

The aim of the paper is to analyze the impact of heterogeneous beliefs in an otherwise standard competitive complete market economy. The construction of a consensus probability belief, as well as a consensus consumer, are shown to be valid modulo an aggregation bias, which takes the form of a...

This article analyses the impact of oil price on bond risk premiums issued by emerging economies. No empirical study has yet focussed on the effects of the oil price on government bond risk premiums. We develop a model of credit spread with data from the EMBIG index of seventeen countries, from...

We provide a discipline for belief formation through a model of subjective beliefs, in which agents hold strategic beliefs. More precisely, we consider beliefs as a strategic variable that agents can choose (consciously or not) in order to maximize their utility at the equilibrium. These...

Why do investors keep different opinions even though they learn from their own failures and successes? Why do investors keep different opinions even though they observe each other and learn from their relative failures and successes? We analyze beliefs dynamics when beliefs result from a very...

Why do investors keep different opinions even though they learn from their own failures and successes? Why do investors keep different opinions even though they observe each other and learn from their relative failures and successes? We analyze beliefs dynamics when beliefs result from a very...