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The aim of this article is to use probabilistic ideas to study predictive reasoning based on hypotheses and models, but without using Ito calculus, without writing any stochastic differential equations, in fact without writing any formulas at all. The aim is to extract from the study of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010899270
&D investment and productivity growth are more negatively correlated with sales volatility in more credit constrained firms. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010930234
market price of risk, the risk free rate, the bond prices at dierent maturities, the stock price and volatility as well as …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009360288
We propose a tractable framework for quantifying the impact of fire sales on the volatility and correlations of asset … returns and provide a quantitative explanation for spikes in volatility and correlations observed during liquidation of large …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010548433
An elementary arbitrage principle and the existence of trends in financial time series, which is based on a theorem published in 1995 by P. Cartier and Y. Perrin, lead to a new understanding of option pricing and dynamic hedging. Intricate problems related to violent behaviors of the underlying,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010551681
with limited memory, then there are rationally formed expectations equilibria exhibiting an excess volatility that no … one from a positive viewpoint, this result suggests that the possibility of excess volatility as an equilibrium phenomenon …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010750627
We decompose volatility of a stock market index both in time and scale using wavelet filters and design a probabilistic …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010750636
This paper studies empirically the link between remittances and growth volatility by examining the impact of … of moment (GMM) technique for a sample of 63 countries over the 1980-2004 period. The volatility of terms of trade and … inflation is used to proxy for real and monetary volatility, respectively. The results show that the impact of remittances on …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010738454
This paper investigates the relationship between trust and macroeconomic volatility. In a cross section of countries … changes in inherited trust over the XXth century to show that increasing trust also decreases volatility across time. Thus … reduces investment volatility but not public expenditure volatility. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010738740
volatility. It identifies a new channel - the "asymmetric information" channel - through which aid volatility is costly for … specifications and econometric methods, and developing new yearly estimates of aid volatility, I show that (i) introducing more … information increases aid efficiency, that (ii) the negative impact of aid volatility on aid efficiency vanishes once one controls …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010739130