The paper discusses the possible economic consequences of the financial crisis from a (Post)Keynesian point of view. It examines the forthcoming depressive mechanisms, including the orthodox reactions of monetary and fiscal authorities, in the vein of those inferred in Europe by the mandate of...

The paper states that, although Post Keynesian interest rules may be feasible and sustainable in favourable circumstances, there is a shared difficulty as for the setting of long-term interest rates in a context of strong uncertainty and shifting liquidity preference. According to Keynes theory...

The aim of this paper is to evaluate the economic consequences on the countries that on one hand protect themselves from future financial crises by accumulating international reserves (IR) while on the other hand expose themselves to severe financial crisis due to their excessive internal and/or...

Prior to the 2008 financial crisis, the economic model of PPPs benefited from a very favorable environment in terms of credit availability and cost. The high level of liquidity in financial markets allowed rising abundant and not expensive external resources, because of both the low level of...

This paper investigates Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall for CAC 40, S&P 500, Wheat and Crude Oil indexes during the 2008 financial crisis. We show an underestimation of the risk of loss for the unconditional VaR models as compared with the conditional models. This underestimation is...

Modified Cox-Ingersoll-Ross model is employed, combining with Hamilton (1989) type Markov regime switching framework, to study foreign exchange rates, where all parameter values depend on the value of a continuous time Markov chain. Basing on real data of some foreign exchange rates, the...

The disaster myopia hypothesis is a theoretical argument that may explain why crises are a recurrent event. Under very optimistic circumstances, investors disregard any relevant information concerning the increasing degree of risk. Agents' propensity to underestimate the probability of adverse...

We decompose volatility of a stock market index both in time and scale using wavelet filters and design a probabilistic indicator for valatilities, analogous to the Richter scale in geophysics. The peak-over-threshold method is used to fit the generalized Pareto probability distribution for the...

We present several estimates of measures of risk amongst the most well-known, using both high and low frequency data. The aim of the article is to show which lower frequency measures can be an acceptable substitute to the high precision measures, when transaction data is unavailable for a long...

This paper aims to investigate the intensity and the effectiveness of the capital controls in China from 2003 to 2010, with special attention to the period of financial turbulence that erupted in the summer of 2007. We employ a two-regime threshold autoregressive model to study the Renminbi...