Building upon recent work of Gintis, we study evolutionary dynamics in an economy with Leontieff preferences and corner endowments for which the equilibrium is completely indeterminate. We exhibit a class of dynamics which selects, via stochastic stability, the equilibrium minimizing the...

We present a mathematical model for the analysis of the bargaining games based on private prices used by Gintis to simulate the dynamics of prices in exchange economies, see [Gintis 2007]. We then characterize, in the Scarf economy, a class of dynamics for which the Walrasian equilibrium is the...

In two recent contributions, Herbert Gintis introduces agent-based imitation models built upon evolutionary bargaining games where agents use private prices as strategies. He reports surprising convergence results for simulations performed in exchange economies where goods are strict complement....

We survey and unify results on elimination of dominated strategies by monotonic dynamics and prove some new results that may be seen as dual to those of Hofbauer and Weibull (J. Econ. Theory, 1996, 558-573) on convex monotonic dynamics.

Why do investors keep different opinions even though they learn from their own failures and successes? Why do investors keep different opinions even though they observe each other and learn from their relative failures and successes? We analyze beliefs dynamics when beliefs result from a very...

Why do investors keep different opinions even though they learn from their own failures and successes? Why do investors keep different opinions even though they observe each other and learn from their relative failures and successes? We analyze beliefs dynamics when beliefs result from a very...

The aim of this article is to use probabilistic ideas to study predictive reasoning based on hypotheses and models, but without using Ito calculus, without writing any stochastic differential equations, in fact without writing any formulas at all. The aim is to extract from the study of...

In this paper, we aim at assessing Markov-switching and threshold models in their ability to identify turning points of economic cycles. By using vintage data that are updated on a monthly basis, we compare their ability to detect ex-post the occurrence of turning points of the classical...

We present a methodology to assess the profitability of a capital intensive industry over a business cycle and to make projections of profitability for different investment strategies under various hypothetical scenarios for environmental and competition policies. The methodology is applied to...

This article explores the role of trend shocks in explaining the specificities of business cycles in Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries using the methodology introduced by Aguiar and Gopinath (2007) [Emerging Market Business Cycles: The Cycle Is the Trend Journal of Political Economy 115(1)]....