In the light of the economically rational expectation theory, this article shows how an expert chooses an optimal oil price forecast function given that information is costly. In this framework we propose an expectational process which nests all processes considered in the literature. By...

This paper relaxes a fundamental hypothesis commonly accepted in the expectation formation literature: expectations are, unchangingly, either rational or generated by one of the three simple extrapolative, regressive or adaptive processes. Using expectations survey data provided by Consensus...

We construct a general equilibrium model with incomplete markets and borrowing constraints, in order to study the term structure of real interest rates. Agents are subject to both aggregate and idiosyncratic income shocks, which latter may force them into early portfolio liquidation whilst in...

We analyse the term structure of interest rates in a general equilibrium model with incomplete markets, borrowing constraint, and positive net supply of government bonds. Uninsured idiosyncratic shocks generate bond trades, while aggregate shocks cause uctuations in the trading price of bonds....

This paper presents an equilibrium model in a pure exchange economy when investors have three possible sources of heterogeneity. Investors may dier in their beliefs, in their level of risk aversion and in their time preference rate. We study the impact of investors heterogeneity on the...

Several authors have proposed to combine movements in princi- pal components to generate scenarios of "large" historical changes in term structures, i.e. stress-scenarios. This approach, however, has at least two shortcommings. This paper answers at these two problems and proposes a general...

Traditional …financial theory predicts that comovement in asset returns is due to fundamentals. An alternative view is that of Barberis and Shleifer (2003) and Bar- beris, Shleifer and Wurgler (2005) who propose a sentiment based theory of comovement, delinking it from fundamentals. In their...

This paper explores the impact of Europe's existing institutional framework on the degree of macroeconomic disparity in the Eurozone. It draws son analysis of the costs of this framework as well as of the benefits of European economic and monetary unification. It also highlights how these costs...

This paper proposes an assessment of the monetary policy performed by the European Central Bank (ECB) and, more specifically this paper investigates to what extent the ECB monetary policy decisions were guided by financial instability signals. Our assessment is achieved by estimating a Taylor's...

Myrdal's works are usually analysed with a dual and separated point of view : on the one hand the methodological papers concerning the value problem and based on a strong non neutrality thesis ; on the other part the theoretical analysis concerning monetary theory and policy, with a Wicksellian...