Despite numerous efforts at interpretation and exposition, the standard Real Business Cycle model remains somewhat misterious. Its dynamic porperties are by now familiar, at least to those who made the effort to run simulation by themselves. Many extention of the basic model have been developed,...

We present a model of inductive inference that includes, as special cases, Bayesian reasoning, case-based reasoning, and rulebased reasoning. This uni ed framework allows us to examine how the various modes of inductive inference can be combined and how their relative weights change...

Extreme events are one of the main channels through which climate and socio- economic systems interact and it is likely that climate change will modify their probability distributions. The long-term growth models used in climate change as- sessments, however, cannot capture the effects of such...

We consider an oligopoly of firms that compete on price. Firms produce a non-stochastic output, insurance coverage, which is sold before the true cost is known. They behave as if they were risk-averse for a standard reason of costly external finance. The model consists in a two-stage game. At...

We study the effect of a large set of department characteristics on individual publication records. We control for many individual time-varying characteristics, individual fixed-effects and reverse causality. Department characteristics have an explanatory power that can be as high as that of...