Similar Search Results

Tillio, Alfredo Di; Gilboa, Itzhak; Samuelson, Larry - HAL - 2012

prediction, and to show that a logically omniscient reasoner gains nothing from using counterfactuals for prediction. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010898891

Economic development as major determinant of Olympic medal wins: predicting performances of Russian and Chinese teams at Sochi Games

Andreff, Wladimir - HAL - 2013

Econometric modelling of Winter Olympic Games to explain sporting outcomes with economic variables, then predicting the medal distribution at the next Games, Sochi 2014.

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011025595

Subjectivity in Inductive Inference

Gilboa, Itzhak; Samuelson, Larry - HAL - 2012

This paper examines circumstances under which subjectivity enhances the effectiveness of inductive reasoning. We consider a game in which Fate chooses a data generating process and agents are characterized by inference rules that may be purely objective (or data-based) or may incorporate...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010820878

The rationality of expectations formation and excess volatility

Davila, Julio - HAL - 2008

expectations in the sense that any other expectations justifying his choices imply a smaller likelihood for the history he observes … with limited memory, then there are rationally formed expectations equilibria exhibiting an excess volatility that no … rational expectations equilibrium can match. Given that the limited records or finite memory case may arguably be the relevant …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010750627

Does soft information matter for financial analysts' forecasts? A gravity model approach

Breton, Régis; Galanti, Sébastien; Hurlin, Christophe; … - HAL - 2011

We study whether the financial analysts' concern to maintain good relationships with firms' managers in order to preserve their access to 'soft' qualitative information entice them to issue pessimistic or optimistic forecasts. We use a gravity model approach to firmsanalysts relationships and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010899519

Arbitrage and price revelation with private beliefs

Boisdeffre, Lionel De - HAL - 2012

-1979) classical, but restrictive, assumptions of rational expectations and perfect foresight. It deals with sequential financial …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010635092

Expectation Formation and Social Influence

Karpf, Andreas - HAL - 2014

This article investigate the role of social influence for the expectation formation of economic agents. Using self-organizing Kohonen maps the repeated cross-section data set of the University of Michigan consumer survey is transformed into a pseudo panel allowing to monitor the expectation...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011025552

Fiscal rules vs. political culture as determinants of soft budget spending behaviors

Josselin, Jean-Michel; Padovano, Fabio; Rocaboy, Yvon - HAL - 2012

rules and institutions they face. This allows to proxy the bailout expectations in both countries and their role in … determining soft budget spending behaviors. A larger impact of expectations is taken as evidence of greater discretion in fiscal … soft budget constraints and bailing out expectations are a quantitatively important component of local government spending …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010735041

Is man doomed to progress?

Senik, Claudia - HAL - 2007

This paper is dedicated to the empirical exploration of the welfare effect of expectations and progress per se. Using …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010738850

Community on the watch: making sense of is research through the lens of espoused theories of is

Vaujany, F.X. De; Lesca, Nicolas; Fomin, C.; Loebbecke, C. - HAL - 2009

Community on the Watch: Making Sense of IS Research through the Lens of Espoused Theories of IS In the IS field there has been an ongoing tradition to study the publication output of the community in order to evaluate the current and potential situation of IS research. In this work, we follow a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008791499