Zeno's "dichotomy" paradox of the runner and the sorites paradox exhibit certain interesting similarities. Both of them involve a long series of steps, each of which seems legitimate, but which, taken together, apparently lead to an unacceptable conclusion. In this article, a particular...

This paper studies portfolio allocation in the international financial market when investors exhibit ambiguity aversion towards assets issued in foreign locations. Entrepreneurs located in each country have access to a risky technology and want to attract capital. The authors characterize...

It is well-known that classical models of belief are not realistic representations of human doxastic capacity; equally, models of actions involving beliefs, such as decisions based on beliefs, or changes of beliefs, suffer from similar inaccuracies. In this paper, a general framework is...

We obtain results on the sensitivity of the invariant measure and other statistical quantities of a Markov chain with respect to perturbations of the transition matrix. We use graph-theoretic techniques, in contrast with the matrix analysis techniques previously used.

Given a sequence (s0; s1,..., sN) of observations from a finite set S, we construct a process (sn)n_N that satisfies the following properties: (i) (Sn)n_ ·N is a piecewise Markov chain, (ii) the conditional distribution of sn given S0,...,Sn-1 is close to the empirical transition given by the...

De tous les problèmes conçus par la théorie de la décision, le paradoxe d'Allais est peut-être celui qui aura suscité l'intérêt le plus persistant. La théorie y a consacré assez de travaux techniques remarquables pour qu'il soit désormais possible à l'histoire et à la philosophie...

Entrepreneurship studies have attributed to over-confidence decisions to start a new venture. Many decision situations, through which over-confidence is measured, entail some degrees of uncertainty, (e.g., related to own skill or to competition). The aspect of uncertainty is largely neglected in...

Author's abstract: A theory of when to defer a decision is proposed, according to which a decision maker defers if and only if his confidence in the relevant beliefs does not match up to the stakes involved in the decision. It uses the model of confidence in beliefs and the notion of stakes...

The authors propose a task for eliciting attitudes towards risk that is close to real world risky decisions which typically involve gains and losses. The task consists of accepting or rejecting gambles that provide a gain with probability p and a loss with probability 1 p. The authors employ...

A theory of incomplete preferences under uncertainty is proposed, according to which a decision maker’s preferences are indeterminate if and only if her confidence in the relevant beliefs does not match up to the stakes involved in the decision. The author uses the model of confidence in...