Most banks employ historical simulation for Value-at-Risk (VaR) calculations, where VaR is computed from a lower quantile of a forecast distribution for the portfolio’s profit and loss (P&L) that is constructed from a single, multivariate historical sample on the portfolio’s risk factors....

Recent research advocates volatility diversification for long equity investors. It can even be justified when short-term expected returns are highly negative, but only when its equilibrium return is ignored. Its advantages during stock market crises are clear but we show that the high...

It is widely accepted that some of the most accurate predictions of aggregated asset returns are based on an appropriately specified GARCH process. As the forecast horizon is greater than the frequency of the GARCH model, such predictions either require time-consuming simulations or they can be...

We study the empirical performance of the classical minimum-variance hedging strategy, comparing several econometric models for estimating hedge ratios of crude oil, gasoline and heating oil crack spreads. Given the great variability and large jumps in both spot and futures prices, great care is...

We quantify and endogenize the model risk associated with quantile estimates using a maximum entropy distribution (MED) as benchmark. Moment-based MEDs cannot have heavy tails, however generalized beta generated distributions have attractive properties for popular applications of quantiles....

Several principal component models of volatility smiles and skews have been based on daily changes in implied volatilities, by strike and/or by moneyness. Derman and Kamal (1997) analyze S&P500 and Nikkei 225 index options where the daily change in the volatility surface is specified by delta...

Equity hedge funds are thought to effectively operate market timing by implementing switching strategies conditional on market circumstances. In this paper we use only the reported monthly returns on a set of funds to infer the type of switching strategies they follow, if any, as well as their...

It is a common problem in risk management today that risk measures and pricing models are being applied to a very large set of scenarios based on movements in all possible risk factors. The dimensions are so large that the computations become extremely slow and cumbersome, so it is quite common...

This paper presents an empirical study of hedging the four largest US index exchange traded funds (ETFs). When hedging each ETF position with its own index futures we find that it is difficult to improve on the naïve 1:1 futures hedge, that hedging is less effective around the time of dividend...