We study sovereign bond yields in OECD countries with a dynamic panel by checking for cross-section dependence; assessing panel cointegration; and estimating panel errorcorrection models. The results show that markets consider budgetary and external imbalances and inflation as relevant...

This study assesses the short and long-run behaviour of long-term sovereign bond yields in OECD countries, for the period 1973-2008. We employ a dynamic panel approach to reflect financial and economic integration, and to increase the performance and accuracy of the tests. Given the existence of...

We use sovereign debt rating estimations from Afonso, Gomes and Rother (2009, 2010) for Fitch, Moody’s, and Standard & Poor’s, to assess to what extent the recent fiscal imbalances are being reflected on the sovereign debt notations. We use macro and fiscal data up to 2009, and macro and...

We use a panel of 155 countries for 1970-2010 to study (two-way) causality between government spending, revenue and growth. Our results suggest the existence of weak evidence supporting causality from expenditures or revenues to GDP per capita and provide evidence supporting Wagner’s Law.

In this paper we assess the determinants of revenue forecast errors for the EU-15 between 1999 and 2012, based on the forecasts published bi-annually by the European Commission. Our results show that personal income rate changes increase the revenue forecast errors: for forecasts made in t for...

Using static and dynamic panel estimates in a sample including all 28 European Union countries during the last decade, this paper seeks to improve upon the existing literature with empirical evidence on the important role that well-functioning EU banking institutions can play in promoting...

We assess the fiscal-growth nexus with a large country panel, accounting for the usually encountered econometric pitfalls. Our results show that revenues have no significant impact on growth whereas expenditures have negative effects. The same is true for the OECD with the addition that...

We use a panel of developed and emerging countries for the period 1970-2008 to assess how fiscal policy volatility and financial crises affect growth. We find that economic growth is lower in the presence of more volatile fiscal policy. Moreover, with a financial crisis government spending is...

We study the relevance of fiscal rules for growth in an EU panel. Our results show that they foster growth, while stricter fiscal rules mitigate the adverse impact on growth from big governments. Moreover, more recent EU member states have gained from the implementation of fiscal rules.

The European Commission releases twice a year economic forecasts for some macro and fiscal variables (GDP growth rate, inflation, budget balance, among others). In our research we will try to understand if the corrections made to these forecasts have an impact in sovereign yields. We will...