Using bootstrap panel analysis, allowing for cross-country correlation, without the need of pre-testing for unit roots, we study the causality between government revenue and spending for the EU in the period 1960-2006. Spend-and-tax causality is found for Italy, France, Spain, Greece, and...

The main focus of this paper is the relation between the cyclical components of total revenues and expenditures and the budget balance in France, Germany, Portugal, and Spain. We try to uncover past trends behind the development of public finances that contribute to explaining the current stance...

We investigate the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy using a Bayesian Structural Vector Autoregression approach. We build on a recursive identification scheme, but we: (i) include the feedback from government debt (ii); look at the impact on the composition of output; (iii) assess the...

We review the main budgetary measures not accepted by the Portuguese Constitutional Court in the Budget Laws of 2012, 2013 and 2014. Considering the feedback effect of the fiscal impulse, the impact on the budget balance is -0.42% and of -0.34% of GDP respectively for 2013 and for 2014; in both...

We assess the sustainability of public finances in OECD countries using panel unit root and cointegration analyses. Results show: no cointegration (no sustainability) between revenues and expenditures; improvement of the primary balances after worsening debt ratios; causality from government...

Numerical fiscal rules mitigate the bias of pro-cyclicality, as an alternative to discretionary measures conducted by policy makers. We assess whether fiscal rules impact budget balances and sovereign yields, and we perform a simulation exercise to compute debt developments of EU countries,...

We investigate the relevance of the characteristics of Ministers of Finance as an influence on the development of stock returns, sovereign yields and fiscal outcomes, which result from the implementation of their fiscal policies. For a panel of 27 EU countries, covering the period of 1980-2012,...

Since the beginning of the sovereign debt crisis in the Euro Area, a main concern for European leaders is the prevention of the possible contagion from distressed countries. In our research, we assess if there is a spillover effect from those countries and which determinants can be considered...

This paper provides new insights about the existence of expansionary fiscal consolidations in the Economic and Monetary Union, using annual panel data for 14 European Union countries over the period 1970-2012. Different measures for assessing fiscal consolidations based on the changes in the...

Using a panel data set of 14 EU countries from 1970 to 2012, we study the type of monetary and fiscal policies of both authorities, and assess how they are influenced by certain economic variables and events (the Maastricht Treaty, the Stability and Growth Pact, the Euro and crises). Results...