This paper identifies the determinants of macroeconomic forecasts (budget balance, public debt and real GDP growth), of the governments of the 15 EU countries. We have used the forecasts of the Stability and Convergence Programmes submitted between 1998/99 and 2008/09 and the European...

After entering the EU in 1986, Portugal benefited from low interest rates and some growth momentum. However, the difficulty in taming fiscal imbalances, the pro-cyclicality of fiscal policy, the use of extraordinary fiscal measures, coupled with the 2008-2009 economic and financial crisis led to...

This paper provides a succinct overview of long-run developments regarding public finances in Portugal with an emphasis on the spending side. Issues addressed are the excessive deficit experiences of Portugal, the past experience with fiscal consolidations, and labour cost competitiveness. It is...

We compute average mark-ups as a measure of market power throughout time and study their interaction with fiscal policy and macroeconomic variables in a VAR framework. From impulse-response functions the results, with annual data for a set of 14 OECD countries covering the period 1970-2007, show...

In static general equilibrium models considering imperfectly competitive goods markets, the effectiveness of fiscal policy to stir output is shown to be greater than in the walrasian case. However, labour is the only input in these models. Here, 1 develop a simple intertemporal model allowing us...

We use a threshold VAR analysis to study whether the effects of fiscal policy on economic activity differ depending on financial market conditions. In particular, we investigate the possibility of a non-linear propagation of fiscal developments according to different financial market stress...

We study fiscal behaviour and the sovereign yield curve in the U.S. and Germany in the period 1981:I-2009:IV. The latent factors, level, slope and curvature, obtained with the Kalman filter, are used in a VAR with macro and fiscal variables, controlling for financial stress conditions. In the...

Using a panel data set of 14 EU countries from 1970 to 2012, we study the type of monetary and fiscal policies of both authorities, and assess how they are influenced by certain economic variables and events (the Maastricht Treaty, the Stability and Growth Pact, the Euro and crises). Results...

We study fiscal consolidations in the Central and Eastern European countries and what determines the probability of their success. We define consolidation events as substantive improvements in fiscal balances adjusting for the impact of cyclical effects. We use Logit models for the period...

In this paper, we analyse the role of political and institutional variables on the cyclical patterns of central government expenditure and revenue. Working with a sample of 38 OECD and Latin-American countries in 1960-2003, we find that higher levels of income inequality are associated with...