We estimate the unobserved time-varying natural interest rate (NIR) and potential output for the Indian economy using the Kalman Filter. Estimation is a special challenge in an emerging market because of limited length of data series and ongoing structural change. A key result in the literature...

Estimates suggest that Indian aggregate supply is elastic but subject to upward shocks. If supply shocksmake a high persistent contribution to inflation, it implies second round pass through is occurring, implying growth has reached its potential. This measure of potential growth draws on both...

We study, with daily and monthly data sets, the impact of conventional monetary policy measures such as interest rates, intervention and other quantitative measures, and of Central Bank communication on exchange rate volatility. Since India has a managed float, we also test if the measures...

The paper assesses changes in the global financial architecture and related global governance. Despite useful reforms lacunae remain. Analysis of financial regulations and measures to address global imbalances show serious weaknesses in addressing risks from shadow banking and large banks that...

The paper analyzes causes of movements in Indian wages for rural unskilled male laborers, and assesses their impact on inflation. Theoretical priors derived from an analytical framework based on the concepts of fair wages, salience and over-reaction are tested using a State level rural wage data...

The paper analyzes the potential rise of new reserve currencies in the context of the economic and political determinants of an international currency. Two models analyze the role of soft political power, switching costs to a new currency and transaction costs in the rise of a new currency....

The paper explores the contribution of innovations to Indian growth. Inclusive innovations aid catch-up and close productivity gaps. An analytical framework helps to characterize policies that contribute to such innovations. Recent telecommunication and mobile banking policies are assessed...

If banks solve an inter-temporal problem under adverse selection and moral hazard, then bank specific factors, regulatory and supervisory features, market structure, and macroeconomic factors affect banks loan interest rates and their spread over deposit interest rates. To examine post...

The paper examines the restructuring of expenditure in the first budget of the new government, and its feasibility. It compares the increase in budget allocations for key macroeconomic aggregates and sectoral plan outlays for the BJP and UPAII interim budget, and the change from the interim...

Taxation is an important tool to enhance the economic development and to finance the expenditure responsibilities of a government. This paper attempts to measure the tax capacity and tax effort of 14 major Indian states from 1992-92 to 2010-11 using Stochastic Frontier Analysis. The use of tax...