Among the most popular techniques for portfolio insurance strategies that are used nowadays, the so-called \Constant Proportion Portfolio In- surance" (CPPI) allocation simply consists in reallocating the risky part of a portfolio according to the market conditions. This general method crucially...

As both speculative and hedging financial flows into commodity futures are expected to link commodity price formation more strongly to equity indices, we investigate whether these processes also create increased correlation amongst the commodities themselves. Considering U.S. oil and gas...

We empirically reinvestigate the issue of excess comovement of commodity prices initially raised in Pindyck and Rotemberg (1990) and show that excess comovement, when it exists, can be related to hedging pressure and speculative intensity in commodity futures markets. Excess comovement appears...

This paper proposes a new class of semiparametric generalized long memory model with FIA- PARCH errors (SEMIGARMA-FIAPARCH model) that extends the conventionnel GARMA model to incorporate nonlinear deterministic trend, in the mean equation, and to allow for time varying volatility, in the...

This paper focuses on the impact of China’s export expansion on Malaysian monthly trading with to her 12 major trading partners over the liberalization era. Structural break(s) found mostly coincides with the Asia financial crisis and China’s accession into WTO and, regime shifts are evident...

his paper attempts to predict the bear conditions on the US stock market. To this aim we elaborate simple predictive regressions, static and dynamic binary choice (BCM) as well as Markov-switching models. The in- and out-of-sample prediction ability is evaluated and we compare the forecasting...

In this paper we examine the degree of interdependence between oil prices and four major countries (United

The aim of this paper is to study the degree of interdependence between oil price and stock market