In ation forecasts are a key ingredient for monetary policymaking - especially in an in ation targeting country such as South Africa. Generally, a typical Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) only includes a core set of variables. As such, other variables,e.g. such as alternative...

This paper employs classical bivariate, factor augmented (FA), slab-and-spike variable selection (SSVS)-based, and Bayesian semi-parametric shrinkage (BSS)-based predictive regression models to forecast US real private residential fixed investment over an out-ofsample period from 1983:Q1 to...

The paper analyses the time-varying conditional correlations between stock markets and oil

This article investigates the dynamics of regional financial integration and its determinants in an international setting. We test a conditional version of the international capital asset pricing model (ICAPM) accounting for the deviations from purchasing power parity (PPP) as well as temporal...

The aim of this research is to examine the structural changes of European carbon futures price under the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) during 2005-2012. More speci fically, by relying on the daily EU allowance (EUA) futures contract, we investigate the structural changes of...

We empirically reinvestigate the issue of excess comovement of commodity prices initially raised in Pindyck and Rotemberg (1990) and show that excess comovement, when it exists, can be related to hedging pressure and speculative intensity in commodity futures markets. Excess comovement appears...

The two major banks in Cyprus - Bank of Cyprus and Laiki Popular Bank - have lost more than 4 billion EUR because of their exposure to the Greek bond market. In this paper, we look at how the European Union has responded to banking and financial problems that have affected Cyprus since the end...

Two integrated financial markets are generally subjected to common shocks revealing that commonalities in funda- mentals drive the underlying return processes. In such a case, volatilities should share a long-run component although their transitory

This paper shows the usefulness and relevance of the multivariate fractional cointegration in exploring the dynamic

The aim of this paper is to study the degree of interdependence between oil price and stock market index into two groups of countries: oil-importer countries and exporter ones. To this end, we propose a new empirical methodology allowing a time-varying dynamic correlation measure between the...