his paper attempts to predict the bear conditions on the US stock market. To this aim we elaborate simple predictive regressions, static and dynamic binary choice (BCM) as well as Markov-switching models. The in- and out-of-sample prediction ability is evaluated and we compare the forecasting...

Among the most popular techniques for portfolio insurance strategies that are used nowadays, the so-called \Constant Proportion Portfolio In- surance" (CPPI) allocation simply consists in reallocating the risky part of a portfolio according to the market conditions. This general method crucially...

In this paper we examine the degree of interdependence between oil prices and four major countries (United

As both speculative and hedging financial flows into commodity futures are expected to link commodity price formation more strongly to equity indices, we investigate whether these processes also create increased correlation amongst the commodities themselves. Considering U.S. oil and gas...

The aim of this paper is to study the degree of interdependence between oil price and stock market

This paper examines the dynamic relationship between natural gas consumption and economic growth in Pakistan using a multivariate model by including capital and labor as control variables for the period between 1972QI and 2011QIV. The results of the ARDL bounds testing indicate the presence of...

This paper focuses on the impact of China’s export expansion on Malaysian monthly trading with to her 12 major trading partners over the liberalization era. Structural break(s) found mostly coincides with the Asia financial crisis and China’s accession into WTO and, regime shifts are evident...

The aim of this work is to propose a new sequential strategy-three steps testing procedure- based on recently introduced econometric techniques, in order to assess the meanreverting properties of the real exchange rate and to check whether real exchange r

Conventional approaches to examining the expectation hypothesis of interest rates assume a parametric linear specification among variables. In contrast, this paper tests the hypothesis using a flexible nonlinear inference approach proposed by Hamilton (20

This article examines the volatility dependence between the crude oil price and four US dollar exchange rates using both fractional cointegration and copula techniques. The former exploits the long memory behavior of the volatility processes to investi