his paper attempts to predict the bear conditions on the US stock market. To this aim we elaborate simple predictive regressions, static and dynamic binary choice (BCM) as well as Markov-switching models. The in- and out-of-sample prediction ability is evaluated and we compare the forecasting...

Given the existence of non-normality and nonlinearity in the data generating process of real house price returns over the period of 1831-2013, this paper compares the ability of various univariate copula models, relative to standard benchmarks (naive and autoregressive models) in forecasting...

This article attempts to examine whether the equity premium in the United States can be predicted from a comprehensive set of 18 economic and financial predictors over a monthly out-of-sample period of 2000:2 to 2011:12, using an in-sample period of 1990:2-2000:1. To do so, we consider, in...

In ation forecasts are a key ingredient for monetary policymaking - especially in an in ation targeting country such as South Africa. Generally, a typical Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) only includes a core set of variables. As such, other variables,e.g. such as alternative...

The 2006 sudden and immense downturn in U.S. House Prices sparked the 2007 global financial crisis and revived the interest about forecasting such imminent threats for economic stability. In this paper we propose a novel hybrid forecasting methodology that combines the Ensemble Empirical Mode...

Forecasting the density of returns is useful for many purposes in finance, such as risk manage- ment activities, portfolio choice or derivative security pricing. Existing methods to forecast the den- sity of returns either use prices of the asset of interest or option prices on this same asset....

In this paper, we first provide empirical evidence of the existence of intraday jumps in the crude oil price series. We then show that these jumps, in conjunction with realized volatility measures, are important in modeling the convenience yield over the 2001-2010 period. Our empirical results...

As both speculative and hedging financial flows into commodity futures are expected to link commodity price formation more strongly to equity indices, we investigate whether these processes also create increased correlation amongst the commodities themselves. Considering U.S. oil and gas...

We empirically reinvestigate the issue of excess comovement of commodity prices initially raised in Pindyck and Rotemberg (1990) and show that excess comovement, when it exists, can be related to hedging pressure and speculative intensity in commodity futures markets. Excess comovement appears...

Among the most popular techniques for portfolio insurance strategies that are used nowadays, the so-called \Constant Proportion Portfolio In- surance" (CPPI) allocation simply consists in reallocating the risky part of a portfolio according to the market conditions. This general method crucially...