We consider the problem of accurate market risk modeling for agricultural commodity products over heterogeneous investment horizons using copulas and wavelet methods. Our results indicate that the degree and structure of the dependence of daily commodity returns on the three market risk factors...

This article attempts to examine whether the equity premium in the United States can be predicted from a comprehensive set of 18 economic and financial predictors over a monthly out-of-sample period of 2000:2 to 2011:12, using an in-sample period of 1990:2-2000:1. To do so, we consider, in...

his paper attempts to predict the bear conditions on the US stock market. To this aim we elaborate simple predictive regressions, static and dynamic binary choice (BCM) as well as Markov-switching models. The in- and out-of-sample prediction ability is evaluated and we compare the forecasting...

This paper explores the relevance of asymmetry and long memory in modeling and forecasting the

This paper evaluates the predictability of WTI light sweet crude oil futures by us- ing the variance risk premium, i.e. the difference between model-free measures of implied and realized volatilities. Additional regressors known for their ability to ex- plain crude oil futures prices are also...

Fund managers compensation is a particular problem area in terms of its tax treatment in the United States and some European countries. This problem originates in the difficulty of defining these particular forms of incentive and therefore their estimated fair value. Based on the literature,...

This paper explores the relevance of asymmetry and long memory in modeling and forecasting the conditional volatility and market risk of four major commodities (crude oil, natural gas, gold, and sil- ver). A broad set of the most popular linear and nonlinear GARCH-type models is used to...

This paper explores the relevance of asymmetry and long memory in modeling and forecasting the conditional volatility and market risk of four widely traded commodities (crude oil, natural gas, gold, and silver). A broad set of the most popular linear and

This article attempts to examine whether the equity premium in the United States can be predicted from a comprehensive

The financial crisis has fueled interest in alternatives to traditional asset classes that might be less affected by large market gyrations and, thus, provide for a less volatile development of a portfolio. One attempt at selecting stocks that are less prone to extreme risks, is obeyance of...