This article attempts to examine whether the equity premium in the United States can be predicted from a comprehensive set of 18 economic and financial predictors over a monthly out-of-sample period of 2000:2 to 2011:12, using an in-sample period of 1990:2-2000:1. To do so, we consider, in...

This article attempts to examine whether the equity premium in the United States can be predicted from a comprehensive

his paper attempts to predict the bear conditions on the US stock market. To this aim we elaborate simple predictive regressions, static and dynamic binary choice (BCM) as well as Markov-switching models. The in- and out-of-sample prediction ability is evaluated and we compare the forecasting...

The financial crisis has fueled interest in alternatives to traditional asset classes that might be less affected by large market gyrations and, thus, provide for a less volatile development of a portfolio. One attempt at selecting stocks that are less prone to extreme risks, is obeyance of...

We analyze the reactions of the returns of four European stock markets to sovereign credit rating changes by Fitch, Moody’s, and Standard and Poor’s (S&P) during the period from June 2008 to June 2012 using panel regression equations. We find that (i) upgrades and downgrades affect both own...

This paper examines the dependence structure between the emerging stock markets of the BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) and influential global factors (the S&P 500 index, the commodity markets, the global stock market uncertainty and the US economic policy...

The paper employs an event study methodology to investigate the macroeconomic announcements effects on S&P500 and oil prices. Our results provide evidence of a significant impact of the US macroeconomic news on oil prices. This impact is split into two components, namely the direct effect...

This article studies the dynamic return and market price of risk for Chinese stocks (A-B shares). A Multivariate DCC-GARCH model is used to capture the feature of time-varying volatility in stock returns. We show evidence of different pricing mechanisms explained by the difference in the...

Over the past decade, the sharp increases in the prices of oil and agricultural commodities have raised serious concerns about the heightened volatility of these markets and the possible negative interactions between them. This article deals with the dynamic return and volatility spillovers...

This paper explores the relevance of asymmetry and long memory in modeling and forecasting the