This article attempts to examine whether the equity premium in the United States can be predicted from a comprehensive set of 18 economic and financial predictors over a monthly out-of-sample period of 2000:2 to 2011:12, using an in-sample period of 1990:2-2000:1. To do so, we consider, in...

We examine the long term investment problem, under stochastic interest and inflation rates and incompleteness. Four basic financial assets are available on the financial market: a money market account (the cash), a real consumption good, a financial stock index and a bond with constant maturity....

Conventional approaches to examining the expectation hypothesis of interest rates assume a parametric linear specification among variables. In contrast, this paper tests the hypothesis using a flexible nonlinear inference approach proposed by Hamilton (20

Market efficiency is among the foremost criteria for making investment decisions when foreign investors attempt to allocate their funds to emerging market assets. If the markets under consideration are efficient, quoted prices of the assets will serve as useful and reliable signals for capital...

his paper attempts to predict the bear conditions on the US stock market. To this aim we elaborate simple predictive regressions, static and dynamic binary choice (BCM) as well as Markov-switching models. The in- and out-of-sample prediction ability is evaluated and we compare the forecasting...

Among the most popular techniques for portfolio insurance strategies that are used nowadays, the so-called \Constant Proportion Portfolio In- surance" (CPPI) allocation simply consists in reallocating the risky part of a portfolio according to the market conditions. This general method crucially...

The nexus between stock return and inflation is assessed for Pakistan using the methodology of frequency based causality and continuous wavelet transform over a long sample period 1961:M07 - 2012:M02. The preliminary investigation using the frequency based causality suggests interdependence of...

In this paper, we aim to investigate whether investor following is a determinant of the stock

The aim of this paper is to study the degree of interdependence between oil price and stock market index into two groups of countries: oil-importer countries and exporter ones. To this end, we propose a new empirical methodology allowing a time-varying dynamic correlation measure between the...