Différentes heuristiques ont été avancées par les psychologues et les économistes afin de rendre compte des comportements sur les marchés financiers. Elles soulignent les biais cognitifs qui affectent les croyances individuelles, et s’efforcent d’expliquer dans une certaine mesure les...

This paper considers a special non-linear time series problem, that of testing for co-integration in a Bayesian framework when there is a break in the co-integrating relationship. It is shown that a partial linearization of the likelihood function solves many puzzling questions, in particular...

We estimate by Bayesian inference the mixed conditional heteroskedasticity model of (Haas, Mittnik and Paolelella 2004a). We construct a Gibbs sampler algorithm to compute posterior and predictive densities. The number of mixture components is selected by the marginal likelihood criterion. We...

We develop univariate regime-switching GARCH (RS-GARCH) models wherein the conditional variance switches in time from one GARCH process to another. The switching is governed by a time-varying probability, specified as a function of past information. We provide sufficient conditions for...

We propose a new multivariate volatility model where the conditional distribution of a vector time series is given by a mixture of multivariate normal distributions. Each of these distributions is allowed to have a time-varying covariance matrix. The process can be globally covariance-stationary...

We develop a Markov-switching GARCH model (MS-GARCH) wherein the conditional mean and variance switch in time from one GARCH process to another. The switching is governed by a hidden Markov chain. We provide sufficient conditions for geometric ergodicity and existene of moments of the process....

We present a novel GARCH model that accounts for time varying, state dependent, persistence in the volatility dynamics. The proposed model generalizes the component GARCH model of Ding and Granger (1996). The volatility is modelled as a convex combination of unobserved GARCH components where the...

Cet article est une revue de la littérature où le temps passé dans un état est une variable aléatoire issue d’un mélange continu de distributions. Elle s’est constituée à partir de l’estimation de fonctions de hasards et de méthodes d’approximations d’intégrales. Nous...

Fiscal sustainability is a central topic for most of the transition economics of Eastern Europe. This paper focuses on a particular country : Poland. The main purpose is to investigate, empirically, whether the post-transition fiscal policy is consistent with the intertemporal budget constraint,...