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Was there a regime change in the German monetary transmission mechanism in 1983?

Candelon, Bertrand; Lütkepohl, Helmut - 2000

Recent investigations of the transmission mechanism of German monetary policy arrive at quite different conclusions regarding its stability during the period of monetary targeting by the Bundesbank. In this study small dynamic models for the monetary sector of the German economy are analyzed in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009583433

Fractional cointegration and real exchange rates

Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Gil-Alaña, Luis A. - 2000

This paper uses fractional integration and cointegration in order to model the DM/dollar and the yen/dollar real exchange rates in terms of both monetary and real factors, more specifically real interest rate and labour productivity differentials. We find that whilst the individual series may be...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009611542

Nonparametric estimation in a nonlinear cointegration type model

Karlsen, Hans Arnfinn; Myklebust, Terje; Tjostheim, Dag - 2000

We derive an asymptotic theory of nonparametric estimation for an nonlinear transfer function model Z(t) = f (Xt) + Wt …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009583888

A money demand system for M3 in the unified Germany

Lütkepohl, Helmut; Wolters, Jürgen - 1997

A small macroeconomicmodel is constructed starting from a German money demand relation for M3 based on quarterly, seasonally unadjusted data for the period from 1976 to 1996. In contrast to previous studies we build a vector error correction model for M3, GNP, an inflation rate and an interest...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009660378

The transmission of German monetary policy in the pre-Euro period

Lütkepohl, Helmut; Wolters, Jürgen - 2001

A small macroeconomic model is constructed to study the transmission of the monetary policy conducted by the Deutsche Bundesbank (DBB) since the middle of the 1970s. For this purpose quarterly, seasonally unadjusted data for the period from 1975 to 1998 are used, that is, the period until the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009616780

Nonlinear error correction and the efficient market hypothesis : the case of German dual-class shares

Breitung, Jörg; Wulff, Christian - 1999

The efficient market hypothesis implies that asset prices cannot be cointegrated. On the other hand, arbitrage processes prevent prices of fundamentally related assets from drifting far away. An attractive model that reconciles these two conflicting facts is the nonlinear error correction...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009581105

Sources of German unemployment : a structural vector error correction analysis

Brüggemann, Ralf - 2001

parameter restrictions. A cointegration analysis for the unified Germany reveals a long rum relationship between real wages …. We compare these results to results from a standard SVECM and find that, using the Subset VECM reduces estimation … uncertainty. In contrast to previous studies for West Germany, we find that, unemployment is equally determined by technology …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009613616

The effects of ignoring level shifts on systems cointegration tests

Trenkler, Carsten - 2002

In this paper I analyse the effects of ignoring level shifts in the data generating process (DGP) on systems cointegration tests that do not accommodate level shifts. I consider two groups of Likelihood Ratio tests based on procedures suggested by Johansen (1988, 1995) and Saikkonen & Lütkepohl...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009626747

Fractional cointegration and tests of present value models

Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Gil-Alaña, Luis A. - 2000

This paper tests the validity of Present Value (PV) models of stock prices by employing a two-step strategy for testing the null hypothesis of no cointegration against alternatives which are fractionally cointegrated. Monte Carlo simulations are conducted to evaluate the power and size...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009582383

Fractional integration and the dynamics of UK unemployment

Gil-Alaña, Luis A.; Henry, S. G. B. - 2000

This article is concerned with the dynamic behaviour of UK unemployment. However, instead of using traditional approaches based on I(0) stationary or I(1) (integrated and/or cointegrated) models, we use the fractional integration framework. In doing so, we allow for a more careful study of the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009582384