This work develops an early warning system framework for assessing systemic risks and for predicting systemic events, i.e. periods of extreme financial instability with potential real costs, over the short horizon of six quarters and the long horizon of twelve quarters on the panel of 14...

This paper focuses on policy measures taken to curb the private sector credit growth in the period 2003-2008. Our analysis is based on an original survey performed on eleven central banks in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). The findings reveal high intensity of policy intervention: altogether...

The purpose of this paper is to answer the question of whether the switching to the Inflation Targeting (IT) regime is necessary for the Egyptian case or not? Our judgment of applying IT regime in the Egyptian economy is established on doubled criterion. That is, the practical experience of the...

This paper assesses whether the legal independence granted to the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) under the latest legislation is factual. I followed Fry’s methodology, which assumes that the level of independence of the central bank is determined by fiscal attributes. In an attempt to develop...

This paper deals with the so called problem of reconciliation, a contentious and puzzling issue in Post Keynesian monetary theory. The crux of the matter is the question of mechanisms that would reconcile the loan-created supply of deposits with the willingness of agents to hold these deposits....

The theory of endogenous money supply forms one of the cornerstones of Post Keynesian economics. It has been developing rapidly during the last twenty years, but is still neglected as a theoretical background for practical central bank policy. This may be (among other reasons) due to the...

The paper evaluates several hundred one-day-ahead VaR forecasting models in the time period between the years 2004 and 2009 on data from six world stock indices - DJI, GSPC, IXIC, FTSE, GDAXI and N225. The models model mean using the ARMA processes with up to two lags and variance with one of...

We provide a critical review of the literature on early warning indicators of economics crises and propose methods to overcome several pitfalls of the previous contributions. We use a quarterly panel of 40 EU and OECD countries for the period 1970–2010. As the response variable, we construct a...

This paper focuses on two methods for optimum portfolio selection. We compare Mean-Variance method with Mean-VaR method by the means of investment simulation, based on Czech financial market data from turbulent market periods of the year 2007 and the year 2008. We compare both strategies, basing...

As a result of the 2008 financial crisis, the world credit markets stalled significantly and raised the doubts of market participants and policymakers about the proper and fair valuation of financial derivatives and structured products such as collateralized debt obligations (CDOs). The aim of...