"We forecast unemployment for the 176 German labour-market districts on a monthly basis. Because of their small size … forecast precision with univariate time-series methods, we find that the spatial model does indeed perform better or at least …

significantly outperform their benchmark counterparts for all forecast horizons ranging between one month and a year. This is …

forecast employment for the 176 German labour- market districts on a monthly basis. We first compare the prediction accuracy of … compared using the mean absolute percentage forecast error (MAPFE) for the simulated out-of-sample forecast for 2005. Our … the trend reversal beginning in some regions at the end of 2004. All our models have a high forecast quality with an …

forecast employment for the 176 German labour- market districts on a monthly basis. We first compare the prediction accuracy of … compared using the mean absolute percentage forecast error (MAPFE) for the simulated out-of-sample forecast for 2005. Our … the trend reversal beginning in some regions at the end of 2004. All our models have a high forecast quality with an …

"We forecast unemployment for the 176 German labour-market districts on a monthly basis. Because of their small size … forecast precision with univariate time-series methods, we find that the spatial model does indeed perform better or at least …

purely autoregressive benchmarks. For all investigated forecast horizons (1, 2, 3 and 6 months), test results show that …