We reconsider the issue of price discovery in spot and futures markets. We use a threshold error correction model to allow for arbitrage operations to have an impact on the return dynamics. We estimate the model using quote midpoints, and we modify the model to account for time-varying...

We reconsider the issue of price discovery in spot and futures markets. We use a threshold error correction model to allow for arbitrage opportunities to have an impact on the return dynamics. We estimate the model using quote midpoints, and we modify the model to account for time-varying...

This paper considers the dynamics of spot and futures prices in the presence of arbitrage. A partially linear error correction model is proposed where the adjustment coefficient is allowed to depend non-linearly on the lagged price difference. The model is estimated using data on the DAX index...

We develop a model of the illiquidity transmission from spot to futures markets that formalizes the derivative hedge theory proposed by Cho and Engle (1999). The model shows that spot market illiquidity does not translate one-to-one to the futures market, but rather interacts with price risk,...

The taxation of dividends in Germany underwent major changes. We analyze the implications of these changes for the valuation of DAX futures contracts and test the resulting hypotheses empirically. We find that dividend taxation cannot explain the level of deviations from the cost-of-carry...

This paper reconsiders the issue of share price reactions to dividend announcements. Previous papers rely almost exclusively on a naive dividend model in which the dividend change is used as a proxy for the dividend surprise. We use the difference between the actual dividend and the analyst...

Until October 2004 corporate insiders in Germany were required to report trades in the shares of their firm 'without delay'. In practice substantial reporting delays were common. We show that the delays are systematically related to the characteristics of the firm. Delays are longer in...

In the pre-Sarbanes-Oxley era corporate insiders were required to report trades in shares of their firm until the 10th of the month following the trade. This gave them considerable flexibility to time their trades and reports strategically, e.g., by executing a sequence of trades and reporting...

The overvaluation hypothesis (Miller 1977) predicts that a) stocks are overvalued in the presence of short selling restrictions and that b) the overvaluation increases in the degree of divergence of opinion. We design an experiment that allows us to test these predictions in the laboratory. The...

Recent empirical research suggests that measures of investor sentiment have predictive power for future stock returns over the intermediate and long term. Given the widespread publication of sentiment indicators, smart investors should trade on the information conveyed by such indicators and...