We aim to compare financial technical analysis techniques to strategies which depend on a mathematical model. In this paper, we consider the moving average indicator and an investor using a risky asset whose instantaneous rate of return changes at an unknown random time. We construct...

Economic cycles are the key credit portfolio risk driver and they are autocorrelated over time. We then show that it is economically meaningful to define risk for credit portfolios in a multi period setup. Since one period expected shortfall fails to measure risk adequately in a multi period...