We aim to compare financial technical analysis techniques to strategies which depend on a mathematical model. In this paper, we consider the moving average indicator and an investor using a risky asset whose instantaneous rate of return changes at an unknown random time. We construct...

In this paper, we characterize explicitly the first derivative of the Value at Risk and the Expected Shortfall with respect to portfolio allocation when netting between positions exists. As a particular case, we examine a simple Gaussian example in order to illustrate the impact of netting...

Economic cycles are the key credit portfolio risk driver and they are autocorrelated over time. We then show that it is economically meaningful to define risk for credit portfolios in a multi period setup. Since one period expected shortfall fails to measure risk adequately in a multi period...

Natural catastrophes attract regularly the attention of media and have become a source of public concern. From a financial viewpoint, natural catastrophes represent idiosyncratic risks,diversifiable at the world level. But for reasons analyzed in this pap er reinsurance markets are unable to...

The wealth dynamics of insurance companies strongly depends on the success of their investment strategies, but also on liquidity shocks which occur during unfavorable years, when indemnities to be paid to the clients exceed collected premia. An investment strategy that does not take liquidity...

We study a test statistic based on the integrated squared difference between a kernel estimator of the copula density and a kernel smoothed estimator of the parametric copula density. We show for fixed smoothing parameters that the test is consistent and that the asymptotic properties are driven...

We analyze the role played by the boundary value for the sensitivity of the creditworthiness predictions in methodologies based on Merton [1974]. We run Monte-Carlo simulations with two various samples of firms - American, European - in order to build confidence intervals for the estimator of...

We consider a nonparametric method to estimate copulas, i.e. functions linking joint distributions to their univariate margins. We derive the asymptotic properties of kernel estimators of copulas and their derivatives in the context of a multivariate stationary process satisfactory strong mixing...

In this paper, we investigate the relation between cash flow, debt, investment and performance according to whether the firm is multinational (versus domestic), keiretsu (versus independent) or both multinational and keiretsu. Using a Japanese sample of 3024 firm-year observations in the period...

A common method of valuing the equity in leveraged transactions is the flows-to-equity method whereby the free cash flow available to equity holders is discounted at the cost of equity. This method uses a standard definition of equity free cash flow, but the cost of equity varies over time as...