We introduce and study no-good-deal valuation bounds defined in terms of expected utility. A utility-based good deal is a payoff whose expected utility is toohigh in comparison to the utility of its price. Forbidding good deals induces, viaduality, restrictions on pricing kernels and thereby...

The prospect theory of Kahneman and Tversky (1979) and the cumulative prospect theory of Tversky and Kahneman (1992) are descriptive models for decision making that summarize several violations of the expected utility theory. This paper gives a survey of applications of prospect theory to the...

This paper analyzes the persistence or serial correlation of expected returns as well as the univariate time-series approach that studies the implied autocorrelation function of realized stock returns, including mean reversion and its conditions. In particular, we critically examine whether...

This paper examines how the evidence of stock market predictability affects optimal portfolio choice for buy-and-hold and dynamic investors with different planning horizons. As in Barberis (2000), particular attention is paid to estimation risk, i.e., uncertainty about the true values of the...

This paper uses statistical model selection criteria and Avramovs (2002) Bayesian model averaging approach to analyze the sample evidence on stock market predictability in the presence of model uncertainty. Based on Swiss stock market data, our posterior analysis finds that neither the...