We revisit the debt overhang question. We first use non-parametric techniques to isolate a panel of countries on the downward sloping section of a debt Laffer curve. In particular, overhang countries are ones where a threshold level of debt is reached in sample, beyond which (initial) debt ends...

We identify local and global factors across international bond markets that arepoorly spanned by the traditional level, slope and curvature factors but havestrong forecasting power for future bond excess returns. Local and global fac-tors are jointly signicant predictors of bond returns, where...

We explore the determinants of yield differentials between long-term sovereigen bonds in Europa area. There is a common trend in yield differentials, which is correlated with the measure of tghe international risk factor. In contrast, liquidity differentials display sizeable hetrogeneity and no...

The challenge of international term structure models is to simultaneously account for the properties of interest rate term structures and foreign exchange rates within an arbitrage-free framework. We extend the quadratic term structure models proposed in Leippold and Wu (2002) to multiple...

We study the optimal policies and mean-variance frontiers (MVF) of a multiperiod mean-variance optimization of assets and liabilities (AL). Our model allows for a contemporaneous optimization of the balance-sheet as a whole. This makes the analysis more challenging than in a setting based on...

We propose an affine term structure model which accommodates non-linearities in the drift and volatility function of the short-term interest rate. Such non-linearities are a consequence of discrete beta-distributed regime shifts constructed on multiple thresholds. We derive iterative closed form...

While the relationship between volatility and risk is central to much of thefinancial literature it has not been incorporated systematically into assessment ofsovereign debt sustainability. This paper attempts to fill this gap by studying how the probability distribution of sovereign debt to GDP...

This paper introduces an expected value estimator with expert knowledge to the robust estimation of sovereign rating transitions which are characterised by few observations. Ourestimates of default premia within Mexican, Colombian and Brazilian Eurobond yield spreads provide a better fit than...

Central bankers’ conventional wisdom suggests that nominal interest rates should be raised to implement a lower inflation target. In contrast, I show that the standard New Keynesian monetary model predicts that nominal interest rates should bedecreased to attain this goal. Real interest rates,...

Stylized facts on output and interest rates in the U.S. have so far proved hard to match with business cycle models. But these findings do not acknowledge that the economy might well be driven by different shocks, and by each in different ways. I estimate covariances of output, nominal and real...