We revisit the apparent historical success of technical trading rules on daily prices of the Dow Jones index. First, we use the False Discovery Rate as a new approach to data snooping. The advantage of the FDR over existing methods is that it is more powerful and not restricted only to the best...

We develop a test of equality between two dependence structures estimated through empirical copulas. We provide inference for independent or paired samples. The multiplier central limit theorem is used for calculating p-values of the Cramér-von Mises test statistic. Finite sample properties are...

We consider consistent tests for stochastic dominance efficiency at any order of a given portfolio with respect to all possible portfolios constructed from a set of assets. We justify block bootstrap approaches to achieve valid inference in a time series setting. The test statistics are computed...

We propose a class of new robust GMM tests for endogenous structural breaks. The tests are based on supremum and average statistics derived from robust GMM estimators with a bounded influence function. They imply a bounded linearized asymptotic bias of size and power under local model...

International evidence on the accrual anomaly is sparse and conflicting. Testing for accrual mispricing in 28 equity markets, we provide statistical evidence for anomalous returns in some countries. However, we question whether this result might have occurred by chance alone and that it might...

We propose a new multivariate GARCH model with Dynamic Conditional Correlations that extends previous models by admitting multivariate thresholds in conditional volatilitiesand correlations. The model estimation is feasible in large dimensions and the positive definiteness of the conditional...

We propose a simple class of semiparametric multivariate GARCH models, allowing for asymmetric volatilities and time-varying conditional correlations. Estimates for time-varying conditional correlations are constructed by means of a convex combination of estimates for averaged correlations...

The validation of probability calibration is an inherently difficult task. We develop a testing procedure for credit-scoring models. The models comprise two components to check whether the ex-ante probabilities support the ex-post frequencies. The first component tests the level of the...

The term structure of American interest rates is filtered to reduce the influence of cross correlations and auto correlations on its factors. A three-factor model is fitted to the filtered data. Contrary to most studies of the term structure on monthly data, performing statistical tests we...

This paper uses a new approach to determine the fraction of truly skilled managers among the universe of U.S. domestic-equity mutual funds over the 1975 to 2006 period. We develop a simple technique that properly accounts for “false discoveries,” or mutual funds which exhibit significant...