This paper complements theoretical studies on the Kelly rule in evolutionary finance by studying a Darwinian model of selection and reproduction in which the diversity of investment strategies is maintained through genetic programming. We find that investment strategies which optimize long-term...

We use portfolio theory to quantify the efficiency of state-level sectoral patterns of production in the United States. On the basis of observed growth in sectoral value-added output, we calculate for each state the efficient frontier for investments in the real economy. We study how rapidly...

We evaluate how non-normality of asset returns and the temporal evolution of volatility and higher moments affects the conditional allocation of wealth. We show that if one neglects these aspects, as would be the case in a mean-variance allocation, a significant cost would arise. The performance...

We analyze the problem of real optimal asset allo cation for a p ensionfund maximising the exp ected CRRA utility of its real disp osable wealth.The financial horizon of the analysis coincides with the random deathtime of a representative subscriber. We consider a very general settingwhere...

This paper extends Merton’s continuous time (instantaneous) mean-varianceanalysis and the mutual fund separation theory. Given the existence of a Marko-vian state price density process, the optimal portfolios from concave utility max-imization are instantaneously mean-variance efficient...

The aim of this paper is to explain why cross-sectional estimated migration correlations displayed in the academic and professional literature can be either not consistent, or inefficient, and to discuss alternative approaches. The analysis relies on a model with stochastic migration in which...

In this paper we explain how to use rating histories provided by the internal scoring systems of banks and by rating agencies in order to predict the future risk of a set of borrowers. The method is developed following the steps suggested by the Basle Committee. To introduce both migration...

The prospect theory of Kahneman and Tversky (1979) and the cumulative prospect theory of Tversky and Kahneman (1992) are descriptive models for decision making that summarize several violations of the expected utility theory. This paper gives a survey of applications of prospect theory to the...

Purpose of this paper: we study the asset allocation problem for a pension fund which maximizes the expected present value of its wealth augmented by the prospective mathematical reserve at the death time of a representative member. Design/methodology/approach: we apply the stochastic...

In this paper, we investigate how investors who face both equity risk andcredit risk would optimally allocate their financial wealth in a dynamic continuous-time setup. We model credit risk through the defaultable zero-coupon bond and solve the dynamics of its price after pricing it. Using...