We identify local and global factors across international bond markets that arepoorly spanned by the traditional level, slope and curvature factors but havestrong forecasting power for future bond excess returns. Local and global fac-tors are jointly signicant predictors of bond returns, where...

This paper introduces an expected value estimator with expert knowledge to the robust estimation of sovereign rating transitions which are characterised by few observations. Ourestimates of default premia within Mexican, Colombian and Brazilian Eurobond yield spreads provide a better fit than...

Due to their underlying assumptions, the standard concepts of risk aversion and preference for the present are generally defined separately and represented by scalar measures, and this implies many shortcomings. More specifically, if measured by a scalar, the risk aversion remains unchanged,...

In this paper, we consider an incomplete market framework and explain how to use jointly observed prices of the underlying asset and of some derivatives written on this assetfor an efficient pricing of other derivatives. This question involves two types of moment restrictions, which can be...

Credit Default Swaps (CDS) are in the process of becoming, liquid and extremelyinformative instruments of default risk. Yet, default swap market has severalnovel aspects that have not received much attention. In this paper we studyan aspect of CDS´s that relates to the prediction of financial...

CEO compensation has increased substantially over the past 15 years, but so has forcedturnover. Motivated by this observation, we investigate whether part of the developmentof CEO pay can be explained by a premium which compensates CEOs for increased job risk.We ¯nd that for the CEOs of the...

Die Aktienindizes erklimmen derzeit neue Höchststände, doch die Schweizer Anleger springen laut einer Studie der Universität Zürich nicht auf den "fahrenden Zug" auf. Den Schweizer Investoren wird insgesamt eine verzerrte Risikowahrnehmung attestiert.

This paper shows that in financial markets with endogenous asset supply and demand, both rational and noise traders do coexist in the long run. The finding implies that financial markets are neither informationally nor allocationally efficient. While rational traders have a consistently higher...

This paper reassesses, at the light of economic and financial theory, the well-documented recent evolution of the euro area public debt and equity markets. Doing so leads to associating the EMU and the single market with the changes in fundamentals and financial integration with convergence in...

Conventional time series analysis, focusing exclusively on a time series at a given scale, lacks the ability to explain the nature of the data generating process. A process equation that successfully explains daily price changes, for example, is unable to characterize the nature of hourly price...